2026-08-27

An ROI model for AI visibility (with the maths)

A clear formula that turns a visibility score into money: how to estimate return before spending, and verify it after three months.

By Khalid Namra8 min read

Quick answer

A clear formula that turns a visibility score into money: how to estimate return before spending, and verify it after three months.

The formula

Return = (monthly buying-intent prompts × your citation share × conversion rate × average customer value) − monthly cost.

Every figure below is an illustrative model of the calculation, not a client result. Substitute your own numbers.

A worked example

VariableAssumed value
Monthly buying-intent prompts in your niche2,000
Citation share before6%
Target citation share after 3 months18%
Conversion rate from a qualified visit3%
Average customer valueEGP 15,000
Monthly programme costEGP 20,000

A 12-point citation gain on 2,000 prompts equals 240 extra appearances a month. At a 3% conversion rate that is roughly 7 customers, or EGP 105,000 in revenue against EGP 20,000 of cost. Even at one third of the model, the return stays positive.

How to verify instead of believe

  1. Log a baseline: visibility score and citation share one day before work starts.
  2. Freeze the prompt set for the measurement window.
  3. Connect Search Console for real visits, not estimates.
  4. Ask every new customer how they found you and log it.
  5. Review after 90 days: citation delta × actual conversion = real return.

Frequently asked questions

When do I see the first effect?

Quotable content and schema updates typically surface in generated answers 3–8 weeks after re-crawl.

Can the return be negative?

Yes, if prompt volume in your niche is tiny or customer value is low. That is why the model is run before spending, not after.

Related SADARA services

  • The SADARA platformInstead of five tools and scattered reports: one visibility score and a priority list that tells you exactly what to do next.
  • SADARA plansWe start with a free analysis of your site, then choose the plan that matches your market size and required growth pace.

Leadership is a decision

Send your site link and get an initial analysis of your visibility across search and AI engines.